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37% Of US Housing Markets
Currently, 151 markets (37% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values compared to the prior Quarter.
For the same period last year 93 markets (22.9%) saw Q-O-Q declines.
Note: Because of seasonal variations between quarters, it’s best to compare Q-O-Q changes to the ‘year ago’ period rather than the immediately preceding quarter.
While many US housing markets saw continued crazy-strong appreciation on a year-over-year basis, when you look at only the most recent quarter-over-quarter results, a different story starts to emerge.
As you can see in the list below, many metro markets failed to keep pace with inflation on a 3-month basis. This could be an early ‘tell’ for those markets.
Granted, inflation was very high and a single quarter’s results do NOT make a trend, The year-over-year results point to very strong appreciation, even after adjusting for inflation.
This is the most volatile (and exciting) time for real estate markets I’ve ever seen.
Fortunes will be made or lost in the coming quarters; some markets will do amazingly well; others will crash and burn.
If you don’t have or want a paid account (which shows you what’s happening down to the zip code and neighborhood level), then AT LEAST grab your free state-level account here. (You can track all 50 states and we update them quarterly for you at no charge).
The only accurate way to analyze and anticipate these local real estate market moves, especially in times like this, is with Technical Analysis (TA) and HousingAlerts.
‘Market Psychology’ will decide which markets are winners or losers, and only TA can track that driving force.
(See the entire list of declining markets below.)
Changes in Market Breadth can act as early indicators for changes in the market cycle.
chart looks like for ALL U.S. Real Estate Markets...
The BLUE line is the inflation adjusted overall appreciation rate for the average of all U.S. real estate markets (as read from the right axis).
The RED line is the percentage of all U.S. real estate markets that have increased in value on a quarter-over-quarter basis, averaged over the last 4 quarters (as read from the left axis).
As with all Quarterly vs. Annual comparisons, you’ll see more variance with shorter time frames. It’s common for this red line to fluctuate up and down.
This A-D Indicator can also be used on State and Regional levels for more granular insights. PRO level members can customize this indicator by logging in and visiting the ‘Advance-Decline’ tool.
Below is the list of cities with
declining Quarter-Over-Quarter home prices…
Note: These are 3-month percentage decline rates.
Multiply by 4 to get approximate annual equivalent (at current run rate).
Even with this historic gain in home values, most of the so-called experts are still calling for a huge market crash, as they’ve been doing for YEARS now.
Eventually they’ll be right, just like a broken clock is right twice a day!
Had you followed their advice, you would have missed out on the biggest 1-year surge in real estate appreciation in modern U.S. history.
If and when any particular local real estate market starts to roll over and crash, you’ll be able to see it from a mile away inside HousingAlerts.
HousingAlerts is the most accurate LOCAL real estate market analytics on the planet, for 15 years running.
If your markets are on this list, DON’T panic!
ONE data point, whether it’s for a Quarter or a Year, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to buy, sell or hold… or do ANYTHING different, other than pay closer attention. That’s where Technical Analysis (TA) comes in.
TA is a 500 year old science to help predict future market swings. TA is used by every Wall Street investment bank and every global stock, bond, currency and commodities trading firm on the planet for TRILLIONS of dollars in DAILY trades.
We invented TA for local real estate
markets and have the most accurate local
market cycle predictions on Planet Earth
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