Quarterly Market Data
Published April 28, 2017
List of the 199 DECLINING U.S. Real Estate Markets
The previous Market Report caused lots of questions about when to use “Year-Over-Year” vs. “Quarter-Over-Quarter” data. When analyzing YOUR local market, you need to look at BOTH; they produce very different results in rapidly changing markets (that’s a good thing!).
Half of all real estate markets lost value Qtr-over-Qtr
Almost 1/5th of all markets lost value Yr-over-Yr
You can see from the two headlines above,
Market Breadth Getting Weaker
Published March 31, 2017
Half of all real estate
markets losing value Qtr-over-Qtr
Almost 1/5th of all markets losing value Yr-over-Yr
I just got back from a real estate mastermind conference; lots of very smart investors. NONE of them knew that nearly 1/5th of all major US real estate markets are now in decline.
They were blown away when I showed them the list (scroll down).
Stop Investing Blindfolded
Risks You Can’t Afford…
Imagine piling your family into your car in the middle of a cold, dark, rainy night then speeding down a twisting mountain road, never turning on your headlights, or buckling their seat belts.
You’d NEVER consider doing that, not even for a second; it’d be irresponsible and just plain crazy.
My Beginnings: How I Made Tons Of Cash In Real Estate
It Had Nothing To Do With Me Or My Hard Work
For many years I searched up and down the East Coast – from Pennsylvania to Georgia – looking for hot markets to invest in.
I built a big in-house team of sales people, acquisition specialists and support staff. We had lots of mouths to feed so we had to keep the deal pipeline filled.
Real Estate Cycles
You’ve always heard real estate moves in cycles… but what does that mean?
More importantly, how can YOU profit from it?
As a general rule, prices for most things are stable (not cyclical) because changes in demand are quickly offset by adjusting supply. If you’re a widget manufacturer and more people want widgets,
Turning a $9,990 Loss Into a $1,308,753 Profit
Numbers don’t lie ? If you bought vegas home in 1980 expecting to cash out in 2016 to live your retirement fantasies, you’d be in for a reality check!
Forced Appreciation: The Nasty Truth The Gurus Never Told You About
Forced and automatic real estate investing ‘strategies’ and how it’s the exact opposite of how you build long-lasting wealth.
The 600 Lb. Gorilla Falls – Part 1
600 Lb. Gorilla Loses His Shirt (And You and His Investing Students Will Too If You Miss This One Key)…
Part 1 of 2
Just take a good look around… many of the real estate gurus still espousing those old methods are losing properties and going out of business right and left.
The 600 Lb. Gorilla Falls – Part 2
The 600 Lb. Gorilla Falls — How A Simple Glimpse At THIS One Picture Could Have Saved Him His Shirt (And How It Can Save You Yours, Too!)
Part 2 of 2
Here he goes. The 600 lb. investing gorilla has made his ascent. And he is about to fall, big time. (Here is Part 1 in case you missed it.)
Now remember,
How All Real Estate Owners Lost $45k The Last Few Years
Why It Had NOTHING to Do With Your Investing Strategy
Did you lose a lot of money in real estate during the last down cycle? The answer, in all likelihood, is yes, you did. You didn’t have to!
See why here on my latest Real Estate Market Report
Look – there’s a time to be actively,
My Home Is Going To Double In Price And My Neighbor’s Will Be Worthless In Just 12 Months!
Zillow, Not Just A Crazy Name, It’s A Crazy Way To Look At Home Prices
Besides Fundamental Analysis, the other major blunder is trying to use “median” home prices to forecast local real estate cycles.
It’s what everyone tries to use because those numbers are readily available, and free. It was the only game in town.
Ken Wade Vs. CNN
This next example is going to tick off the 600 pound gorillas in my space: FiServ Lending Solutions, along with CNN-Money.com and Fortune magazine.
FiServ handles all the big banks and Wall Street firms – I’m a little peon compared to them.
But what the hell, you deserve to know the truth… so here goes…
CNN teamed up with FiServ to publish a detailed local market analysis.
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Advanced Indicators
Advanced Indicators
STAR Indicators
The STAR momentum indicators show the 'energy' behind any market. For a sustained up-cycle, it MUST be supported by momentum. Market Psychology influences momentum but is not the only driver.
The first step in locating investment candidates is evaluating the STAR indicators. Each of the six 'triggers' represent a distinct Technical Analysis (TA) 'event.'
The left-most columns are Short-Term triggers and carry far less significance than the Long-Term indicators on the right.
However, all Trend Reversals (up or down) BEGIN with the short term triggers. They provide early-warning signals, especially when they develop a consistent pattern of changing colors (from green to red, or red to green) 'growing' from left to right.
Green means positive, upward sloping momentum. Red means the opposite. Yellow occurs when, in the current period, the slope/direction changed for that trigger.
Markets that do not display a consistent color pattern; with seemingly random horizontal color changes from one period to the next, especially in the long-term triggers, are generally lacking ANY momentum, and are poor investment markets for Leveraged Appreciation.
STAR Momentum Indicators
Market Momentum (STAR) Indicators
Your State: Alabama
The STAR momentum indicators show the ‘energy’ behind any market. For a sustained up-cycle, it MUST be supported by momentum. Market Psychology influences momentum but is not the only driver.
The first step in locating investment candidates is evaluating the STAR indicators. Each of the six ‘triggers’ represent a distinct Technical Analysis (TA) ‘event.’
The left-most columns are Short-Term triggers and carry far less significance than the Long-Term indicators on the right.
However, all Trend Reversals (up or down) BEGIN with the short term triggers. They provide early-warning signals, especially when they develop a consistent pattern of changing colors (from green to red, or red to green) ‘growing’ from left to right.
Green means positive, upward sloping momentum. Red means the opposite. Yellow occurs when, in the current period, the slope/direction changed for that trigger.
Markets that do not display a consistent color pattern; with seemingly random horizontal color changes from one period to the next, especially in the long-term triggers, are generally lacking ANY momentum, and are poor investment markets for Leveraged Appreciation.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
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© HousingAlerts.com
TAPS Indicators
The TAPS (Technical Analysis Point Score) indicator is an easy to understand, graphical way to show the results of complex Technical Analysis (TA) 'Studies.'
The simple 'slider ball' can move a total of five notches starting from far left (Weak) to far right (Strong).
If the ball position has moved since the prior period, it will have a series of arrows behind it. If the arrows are on the left, that signifies a move from the left, from a weaker to a stronger position, and vice-versa.
Each detailed TA Study has its own slider ball indicator and consists of dozens to hundreds of individual calculations (collectively referred to as 'algorithms').
These detailed algorithms are aggregated and weighted to produce higher level Summary slider indicators until the top-level, overall score is attained.
(TAPS) Indicators
Your State: Alabama
This is the Technical Analysis Point Score ranking for ONLY that particular city. It ignores any impact State, Regional or National market TAPS scores may have on that local market.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab WeakNeutralStrong
© HousingAlerts.com
Real Estate Cycle Charts
Charts showing the annual appreciation or decline in real estate values over time are visual snapshots of Supply and Demand forces in action. Technical Analysis (TA) relies on these charts because they accurately reflect what ACTUALLY happened.
The practice of TA consists of what are called "Studies" – different sets of calculations and algorithms proven over time. These Studies include Market Psychology, the most powerful driver of all.
Because real estate is so cyclical (compared to the Stock Market, for example), relatively simple Studies can be used to accurately track local markets.
Using these charts and Studies, HousingAlerts.com deciphers the data into two broad categories:
1) Market Momentum (the Six Trigger Alert Report or 'STAR')
and...
2) TA Point Score (TAPS)
Long Term Real Estate Cycles
Your State: Alabama
Charts showing the annual appreciation or decline in real estate values over time are visual snapshots of Supply and Demand forces in action. Technical Analysis (TA) relies on these charts because they accurately reflect what ACTUALLY happened.
The practice of TA consists of what are called “Studies” – different sets of calculations and algorithms proven over time. These Studies include Market Psychology, the most powerful driver of all.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab Percentile Ranking Gauges
These gauges show the exact percentile (rank) of this market relative to all markets. A score of “95%” means that, for this indicator, 95% of ALL markets scored lower. 99% (Green) is the best, 0% (Red) is the worst. Typically, a Master Score in the Green area indicates a hot market.
Exit a market based on declining Master, TAPS and STAR scores, especially when new, emerging markets show much stronger relative strength. Follow the "Wealth Phase" chart (when it is no longer green) for the 'last' indicator on when to EXIT a market.
Before initiating a NEW investment or entering a NEW market, look for a high (green) Master, TAPS and STAR (momentum) scores combined with a 'green' Wealth Phase chart.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab Master
40%
STAR
50%
TAPS Local
30%
1-Yr THAR
40%
Close Tab Matching your investing tactics and strategies to your local real estate market trends produces more deals with less risk, effort, and capital. Your micro market intelligence finds and targets those needle-in-a-haystack opportunities and dramatically increases your ROI while slashing your upfront acquisition and marketing costs. Learn more...
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Close Tab Matching your investing tactics and strategies to your local real estate market trends produces more deals with less risk, effort, and capital. Your micro market intelligence finds and targets those needle-in-a-haystack opportunities and dramatically increases your ROI while slashing your upfront acquisition and marketing costs. Learn more...
Help 
