1/4th of U.S. Markets Lost Value Year-over-Year
It doesn’t feel right.
102 out of the 400 major real estate markets in the U.S. experienced ‘real’ decline in home value Year-Over-Year… they didn’t even keep up with inflation.
NO ONE is talking about this.
I’m not saying the sky is falling, but your antennae should be on ‘high alert’ if this trend continues.
It’s TIME TO REALLY PAY ATTENTION to your LOCAL markets.
Take a look at CALIFORNIA!
In recent history, California seemed to act as the canary in the coal mine; often the first to fly and the first to tank. The momentum (i.e.- early) indicators for California do NOT look good.
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In addition to the list of declining cities below, check out our Advance-Decline (A-D) Indicator that aggregates and tracks Market Breadth.
Market Breadth is
Heading in the Wrong Direction
‘Market Breadth’ is a technique used in Technical Analysis (TA) that attempts to gauge the direction of the overall market by analyzing the number of markets advancing relative to the number declining.
Our last Y-O-Y report showed that 69 markets had ‘real’ home price declines. That was up from 32 in the previous period.
We’re now up to 102 DECLINING markets.
That’s three consecutive quarters of Market Breadth getting significantly weaker… and why it should be on your radar. These are (very) early-warning indicators.
Here’s what the Yr-Over-Yr Advance-Decline data looks like for the overall National market:
#1 – When the red chart line is inside the green zone it’s a bullish – or positive – outlook on the overall market.
#2 – When the red line is in the middle zone it’s telling us there is no strong bullish or bearish direction; you must rely more heavily on market-by-market selections.
#3 – When the red line is in the bottom (red) zone, it indicates substantial weakness in the overall market.
As we predicted, the U.S. is now ‘officially’ out of the Bullish zone, overall. The red line is heading south.
Of course, there are still tons of red hot and emerging LOCAL markets, but you need to invest with a greater focus on Market Risk. Otherwise you could be sucking wind in a year or two wondering what the hell happened to all your ‘paper’ wealth.
Worse, you’ll be scrambling to get out of underwater deals trying not to come out of pocket for more than you have, just to walk away.
NOW is when you need to be making those important decisions, not when the evening news is giving you ‘market advice.’
Below is the list of cities with
declining Year-Over-Year home prices…
If your markets are on this list, DON’T panic!
ONE data point, whether it’s for a Quarter or a Year, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to buy, sell or hold… or do ANYTHING different, other than pay closer attention. That’s where Technical Analysis (TA) comes in.
TA is a 500 year old science used by every Wall Street investment bank and every global stock, bond, currency and commodities trading firm on the planet for TRILLIONS of dollars in DAILY trades.
We invented TA for local real estate
markets; no one can touch us when it
comes to predicting precise entry/exit times.
Check out our proven track record for maximizing gain while minimizing risk, capital and effort in ANY U.S. real estate market.
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