Market Breadth Continues to Weaken Year-Over-Year
Published May 17, 2017
1/4th of U.S. Markets Lost Value Year-over-Year
It doesn’t feel right.
102 out of the 400 major real estate markets in the U.S. experienced ‘real’ decline in home value Year-Over-Year… they didn’t even keep up with inflation.
NO ONE is talking about this.
I’m not saying the sky is falling,
Quarterly Market Data
Published April 28, 2017
List of the 199 DECLINING U.S. Real Estate Markets
The previous Market Report caused lots of questions about when to use “Year-Over-Year” vs. “Quarter-Over-Quarter” data. When analyzing YOUR local market, you need to look at BOTH; they produce very different results in rapidly changing markets (that’s a good thing!).
Half of all real estate markets lost value Qtr-over-Qtr
Almost 1/5th of all markets lost value Yr-over-Yr
You can see from the two headlines above,
Real Estate Cycles
You’ve always heard real estate moves in cycles… but what does that mean?
More importantly, how can YOU profit from it?
As a general rule, prices for most things are stable (not cyclical) because changes in demand are quickly offset by adjusting supply. If you’re a widget manufacturer and more people want widgets,
Was the Last Real Estate Crash Truly Unique or Just a Blip On the Radar?
If you have lost significant money as an investor or personally, I know it never feels small. I’m sorry that happened to you.
There is something much bigger going on beneath the surface. Painting the recent real estate downturn as the “event of the century,” screaming that this has never ever happened before and that we will never ever recover from it makes for good headlines,
The 600 Lb. Gorilla Falls – Part 2
The 600 Lb. Gorilla Falls — How A Simple Glimpse At THIS One Picture Could Have Saved Him His Shirt (And How It Can Save You Yours, Too!)
Part 2 of 2
Here he goes. The 600 lb. investing gorilla has made his ascent. And he is about to fall, big time. (Here is Part 1 in case you missed it.)
Now remember,
How All Real Estate Owners Lost $45k The Last Few Years
Why It Had NOTHING to Do With Your Investing Strategy
Did you lose a lot of money in real estate during the last down cycle? The answer, in all likelihood, is yes, you did. You didn’t have to!
See why here on my latest Real Estate Market Report
Look – there’s a time to be actively,
Real Estate Forecasting A Trip To The Beach
Choosing between Daytona and Vero beach, meant an additional $31,200 because of knowing their market cycles.
My Home Is Going To Double In Price And My Neighbor’s Will Be Worthless In Just 12 Months!
Zillow, Not Just A Crazy Name, It’s A Crazy Way To Look At Home Prices
Besides Fundamental Analysis, the other major blunder is trying to use “median” home prices to forecast local real estate cycles.
It’s what everyone tries to use because those numbers are readily available, and free. It was the only game in town.
Ken Wade Vs. CNN
This next example is going to tick off the 600 pound gorillas in my space: FiServ Lending Solutions, along with CNN-Money.com and Fortune magazine.
FiServ handles all the big banks and Wall Street firms – I’m a little peon compared to them.
But what the hell, you deserve to know the truth… so here goes…
CNN teamed up with FiServ to publish a detailed local market analysis.
I Didn’t Mean To Prove Alan Greenspan Wrong… But I Did
In the decades since my Harvard days, I’ve been focused almost exclusively on doing real estate deals and figuring out local real estate markets. I’ve acquired, owned, syndicated, managed, leased, sold or developed just about every type of property there is… in all kinds of markets… and I’ve done it in a very big way.
The Vegas ‘Massive Money Secret’
Buffets, roulette wheels, buffets, magicians, more buffets. Ok, Las Vegas has a little something for everyone! But… maybe not for the real estate investor.
You probably know someone who has bought in Vegas or at least considered investing there, maybe even you have. Well, what you’re about to read is going to challenge how you view real estate investing,
Total Market Master : Part 1
How you can become a total market master. Step inside the modern world of real estate investing. Live where you want – invest where it’s best!
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Advanced Indicators
STAR Indicators
The STAR momentum indicators show the 'energy' behind any market. For a sustained up-cycle, it MUST be supported by momentum. Market Psychology influences momentum but is not the only driver.
The first step in locating investment candidates is evaluating the STAR indicators. Each of the six 'triggers' represent a distinct Technical Analysis (TA) 'event.'
The left-most columns are Short-Term triggers and carry far less significance than the Long-Term indicators on the right.
However, all Trend Reversals (up or down) BEGIN with the short term triggers. They provide early-warning signals, especially when they develop a consistent pattern of changing colors (from green to red, or red to green) 'growing' from left to right.
Green means positive, upward sloping momentum. Red means the opposite. Yellow occurs when, in the current period, the slope/direction changed for that trigger.
Markets that do not display a consistent color pattern; with seemingly random horizontal color changes from one period to the next, especially in the long-term triggers, are generally lacking ANY momentum, and are poor investment markets for Leveraged Appreciation.
STAR Momentum Indicators
Market Momentum (STAR) Indicators
Your State: Alabama
The STAR momentum indicators show the ‘energy’ behind any market. For a sustained up-cycle, it MUST be supported by momentum. Market Psychology influences momentum but is not the only driver.
The first step in locating investment candidates is evaluating the STAR indicators. Each of the six ‘triggers’ represent a distinct Technical Analysis (TA) ‘event.’
The left-most columns are Short-Term triggers and carry far less significance than the Long-Term indicators on the right.
However, all Trend Reversals (up or down) BEGIN with the short term triggers. They provide early-warning signals, especially when they develop a consistent pattern of changing colors (from green to red, or red to green) ‘growing’ from left to right.
Green means positive, upward sloping momentum. Red means the opposite. Yellow occurs when, in the current period, the slope/direction changed for that trigger.
Markets that do not display a consistent color pattern; with seemingly random horizontal color changes from one period to the next, especially in the long-term triggers, are generally lacking ANY momentum, and are poor investment markets for Leveraged Appreciation.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
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TAPS Indicators
The TAPS (Technical Analysis Point Score) indicator is an easy to understand, graphical way to show the results of complex Technical Analysis (TA) 'Studies.'
The simple 'slider ball' can move a total of five notches starting from far left (Weak) to far right (Strong).
If the ball position has moved since the prior period, it will have a series of arrows behind it. If the arrows are on the left, that signifies a move from the left, from a weaker to a stronger position, and vice-versa.
Each detailed TA Study has its own slider ball indicator and consists of dozens to hundreds of individual calculations (collectively referred to as 'algorithms').
These detailed algorithms are aggregated and weighted to produce higher level Summary slider indicators until the top-level, overall score is attained.
(TAPS) Indicators
Your State: Alabama
This is the Technical Analysis Point Score ranking for ONLY that particular city. It ignores any impact State, Regional or National market TAPS scores may have on that local market.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab WeakNeutralStrong
© HousingAlerts.com
Real Estate Cycle Charts
Charts showing the annual appreciation or decline in real estate values over time are visual snapshots of Supply and Demand forces in action. Technical Analysis (TA) relies on these charts because they accurately reflect what ACTUALLY happened.
The practice of TA consists of what are called "Studies" – different sets of calculations and algorithms proven over time. These Studies include Market Psychology, the most powerful driver of all.
Because real estate is so cyclical (compared to the Stock Market, for example), relatively simple Studies can be used to accurately track local markets.
Using these charts and Studies, HousingAlerts.com deciphers the data into two broad categories:
1) Market Momentum (the Six Trigger Alert Report or 'STAR')
and...
2) TA Point Score (TAPS)
Long Term Real Estate Cycles
Your State: Alabama
Charts showing the annual appreciation or decline in real estate values over time are visual snapshots of Supply and Demand forces in action. Technical Analysis (TA) relies on these charts because they accurately reflect what ACTUALLY happened.
The practice of TA consists of what are called “Studies” – different sets of calculations and algorithms proven over time. These Studies include Market Psychology, the most powerful driver of all.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab Percentile Ranking Gauges
These gauges show the exact percentile (rank) of this market relative to all markets. A score of “95%” means that, for this indicator, 95% of ALL markets scored lower. 99% (Green) is the best, 0% (Red) is the worst. Typically, a Master Score in the Green area indicates a hot market.
Exit a market based on declining Master, TAPS and STAR scores, especially when new, emerging markets show much stronger relative strength. Follow the "Wealth Phase" chart (when it is no longer green) for the 'last' indicator on when to EXIT a market.
Before initiating a NEW investment or entering a NEW market, look for a high (green) Master, TAPS and STAR (momentum) scores combined with a 'green' Wealth Phase chart.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab Master
55%
STAR
71%
TAPS Local
36%
1-Yr THAR
55%
Close Tab Matching your investing tactics and strategies to your local real estate market trends produces more deals with less risk, effort, and capital. Your micro market intelligence finds and targets those needle-in-a-haystack opportunities and dramatically increases your ROI while slashing your upfront acquisition and marketing costs. Learn more...
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Close Tab Matching your investing tactics and strategies to your local real estate market trends produces more deals with less risk, effort, and capital. Your micro market intelligence finds and targets those needle-in-a-haystack opportunities and dramatically increases your ROI while slashing your upfront acquisition and marketing costs. Learn more...
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