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71.3% Of US Housing Markets
Last quarter, 289 markets (71.3% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values compared to the prior Quarter.
For the same period last year 113 markets (28%) saw Q-O-Q declines.
Note: Because of seasonal variations between quarters, it’s best to compare Q-O-Q changes to the ‘year ago’ period rather than the immediately preceding quarter.
While many US housing markets saw continued appreciation on a year-over-year basis, when you look at our most recent Regional Analysis and this quarterly list, a different story starts to emerge.
It looks bad.
Are the so-called experts and social media influencers FINALLY getting the massive, widespread housing crash they’ve been warning us was “imminent” for the last three or four YEARS?
The short answer is no, or at least…
Unfortunately, if you’ve fallen prey to their fear mongering clickbait tactics, then you likely missed out on the single biggest wealth creation mini cycle in American history.
Either way, it’s time to pay very serious attention to what’s going on inside your local market(s).
Don’t buy in to their failed “Fundamental” Analysis; that is NOT what’s going to cause markets to tailspin from here.
A big shift in Market Psychology could easily take markets down, and that’s a reasonable possibility given the extreme macro-economic and Geo-political risks.
It won’t take much to light that fuse.
If stuff starts hitting the fan, you’ve got to track what’s ACTUALLY HAPPENING in your local market, not a bunch of theoretical crap that’s been shown to have little or no correlation to predicting the next market cycle.
Only Technical Analysis (‘TA’) can give you precise decision triggers and only HousingAlerts can provide them.
To help us help you in these volatile times, we’ve created a special one-time “crash survival” package:
This is the most volatile (and exciting) time for real estate markets I’ve ever seen.
Fortunes will be made or lost in the coming quarters; some markets will do amazingly well; others will crash and burn.
In addition to the list of declining cities below, we also use our Advance-Decline (A-D) Indicator that aggregates and tracks Market Breadth.
‘Market Breadth’ is a technique used in Technical Analysis (TA) that attempts to gauge the direction of the overall market by analyzing the number of markets advancing relative to the number declining.
Changes in Market Breadth can act as early indicators for changes in the market cycle.
chart looks like for ALL U.S. Real Estate Markets...
The BLUE line is the inflation adjusted overall appreciation rate for the average of all U.S. real estate markets (as read from the right axis).
The RED line is the percentage of all U.S. real estate markets that have increased in value on a quarter-over-quarter basis, averaged over the last 4 quarters (as read from the left axis).
As with all Quarterly vs. Annual comparisons, you’ll see more variance with shorter time frames. It’s common for this red line to fluctuate up and down.
This A-D Indicator can also be used on State and Regional levels for more granular insights. PRO level members can customize this indicator by logging in and visiting the ‘Advance-Decline’ tool.
Below is the list of cities with
declining Quarter-Over-Quarter home prices…
Note: These are 3-month percentage decline rates.
Multiply by 4 to get approximate annual equivalent (at current run rate).
If your markets are on this list, DON’T panic!
ONE data point, whether it’s for a Quarter or a Year, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to buy, sell or hold… or do ANYTHING different, other than pay closer attention. That’s where Technical Analysis (TA) comes in.
TA is a 500 year old science to help predict future market swings. TA is used by every Wall Street investment bank and every global stock, bond, currency and commodities trading firm on the planet for TRILLIONS of dollars in DAILY trades.
We invented TA for local real estate
markets and have the most accurate local
market cycle predictions on Planet Earth
If you want to maximize your Investing, Wholesaling and Flipping profits while minimizing risk, capital and effort in ANY U.S. real estate market, you need to invest WITH the market. Come join us and enter the world of Intelligent Investing.
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