Published June 13, 2023
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61.9% Of US Housing Markets
Declined Qtr-Over-Qtr

Last quarter, 251 markets (61.9% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values compared to the prior Quarter.

For the same period last year 151 markets (37.2%) saw Q-O-Q declines.

Note: Because of seasonal variations between quarters, it’s best to compare Q-O-Q changes to the ‘year ago’ period rather than the immediately preceding quarter.

The huge pandemic-era growth in money supply coupled with the surge in remote work were the primary drivers behind the  biggest and broadest 2-year home price appreciation period in American history.

  • Dozens of major metropolitan markets experienced crazy-high nominal appreciation of 50% – 60% or more.
  • 73% of ALL U.S. real estate markets achieved home price increases exceeding 30%

Unfathomable real estate wealth was created at the same time most so-called experts and social media ‘influencers‘ were pounding the table warning you of an imminent housing bubble bursting.

Although some of those high-flying markets have seen slight to moderate year-over-year home price corrections (so far), the  “mother of all real estate crashes” they’ve been predicting for YEARS never materialized.

They’ve all been dead wrong.

Be careful WHO you listen to. 🙂

In fact (and somewhat surprising),  a few of those super-hot pandemic markets actually bounced back last quarter posting small QoQ nominal home price increases.

Good  news aside,  the market is very bifurcated, like walking a tightrope.

We Aren’t Out of the Woods, YET!

Even a small shift in Market Psychology could easily take your market down (and you along with it). There are  extreme macro-economic and Geo-political risks ahead.

You’ve got to track what’s ACTUALLY HAPPENING in your LOCAL market.

Only Technical Analysis (‘TA’) can give you precise decision triggers and only HousingAlerts can provide them.

This is the most volatile (and exciting) time for real estate markets I’ve ever seen.

Fortunes will be made or lost in the coming quarters; some markets will do amazingly well; others will crash and burn.

(See the entire list of declining markets below.)
In addition to the list of declining cities below, we also use our Advance-Decline (A-D) Indicator that aggregates and tracks Market Breadth.

‘Market Breadth’ is a technique used in Technical Analysis (TA) that attempts to gauge the direction of the overall market by analyzing the number of markets advancing relative to the number declining.

Changes in Market Breadth can act as early indicators for changes in the market cycle.

Here’s what the 4-period Quarter-Over-Quarter Advance-Decline
chart looks like for ALL U.S. Real Estate Markets...

Advance-Decline Momentum Indicator vs Home Price Appreciation Chart Quarter-Over-Quarter Data 2-Period Average

The BLUE line is the inflation adjusted overall appreciation rate for the average of all U.S. real estate markets (as read from the right axis).

The RED line is the percentage of all U.S. real estate markets that have increased in value on a quarter-over-quarter basis, averaged over the last 4 quarters (as read from the left axis).

As with all Quarterly vs. Annual comparisons, you’ll see more variance with shorter time frames. It’s common for this red line to fluctuate up and down.

This A-D Indicator can also be used on State and Regional levels for more granular insights. PRO level members can customize this indicator by logging in and visiting the ‘Advance-Decline’ tool.

Below is the list of cities with
declining Quarter-Over-Quarter home prices…

Note: These are 3-month percentage decline rates.
Multiply by 4 to get approximate annual equivalent (at current run rate).

Inflation Adjusted Home Price Appreciation 2021 - List Showing 33 Declining Markets Lost Value Quarter-Over-Quarter

If your markets are on this list, DON’T panic!

ONE data point, whether it’s for a Quarter or a Year, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to buy, sell or hold… or do ANYTHING different, other than pay closer attention. That’s where Technical Analysis (TA) comes in.

TA is a 500 year old science to help predict future market swings. TA is used by every Wall Street investment bank and every global stock, bond, currency and commodities trading firm on the planet for TRILLIONS of dollars in DAILY trades.

We invented TA for local real estate
markets and have the most accurate local
market cycle predictions on Planet Earth

If you want to maximize your Investing, Wholesaling and Flipping profits while minimizing risk, capital and effort in ANY U.S. real estate market, you need to invest WITH the market. Come join us and enter the world of Intelligent Investing.



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