The Advice They Gave That Would Have Made You Broke, And Exactly How To Avoid It And Make Huge Profits.
They say it’s bad form to bash your ‘competition’ – so please excuse my bad form, but I think you’re being fleeced by the media and others. If you don’t mind seeing Forbes embarrassed, THIS is for YOU
Every time Forbes, CNN or the other big media outlets publish one of their ‘hot market’ reports, I get calls and emails asking why my system doesn’t agree with their experts.
The short answer is because they’re in the business of writing attention-getting headlines, generating page views and advertising dollars – and I’m in the business of local real estate market analysis.
But over the years, I’ve found it’s easier to just do a factual report and share the results with my members.
So here are a couple quick snapshots:
On June 8, 2007, Forbes published an article titled “Most Resilient U.S. Real Estate Markets.”
It then listed the 17 strongest U.S. housing markets, predicted when each would actually bottom and how strongly each one would bounce back.
Tampa was the first city in the slideshow. Here’s a screenshot of their prediction…
Forbes said the Tampa market would bottom in the 1st quarter of 2008 and then appreciate at 10.6% per year.
I know for a fact, a lot of investors took these predictions to be gospel because I had heated discussions with many of them – trying to point out the absurdity of it and to save them from doing something stupid.
If you could read simple red, yellow and green traffic lights, you’d have known that the Forbes prediction was ridiculous – there wasn’t ANYTHING to indicate a bottom might be forming. Just the opposite – the S.T.A.R. system alone was telling you to get the heck out of Tampa – to run for the hills and take cover.
It’s clear as day; the party came to an end for Tampa back in 2006. Do you see all the green lights turning to yellow, then quickly to red, there in 2006?
2004 – 2008
Here’s what actually happened in Tampa:
Tampa didn’t bottom in the first quarter of ’08… or in the first quarter of ’09, or the first quarter of 2010 either.
Forbes predicted Tampa home values would appreciate 21% from 2008 through 2010. In reality, they declined another 25%.
In fact, home prices didn’t go positive until 2013!
And between 2007 and 2013, home prices declined another 40.5%!
If you had followed Forbes’ advise, you would have been in serious trouble.
Remember, we’re talking about real estate here – not some volatile asset class like oil futures or stock options… to be off 40.5% in a couple years – on a real estate prediction is an unbelievably huge margin of error.
Here’s what Tampa really looked like during the time that Forbes predicted a ‘gold rush.’
It just continued to get worse.
You can see the Forbes projection… the dashed red line on this chart… and the actual Tampa results in blue.
Could you get it any more wrong?
Seriously – the only way to be any MORE wrong than what Forbes predicted – would be to predict an even bigger housing boom starting in early 2008 – something even above that dashed red line.
What I’m about to show you next will really blow you away. Be sure to read Forbes Exposed And Embarrassed: Part 2
For my latest report for the state of the current real estate market, join me here where I’ll reveal the rest of the story to you on the our next webinar.